Possible scenario
Glancing Gulf Blow
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a cautious, temporary shut-in that protects crews but avoids major platform or refinery damage. Gulf operators restart output after inspections, leaving only a modest oil-price premium.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
- OXY-0.4%
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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