Possible scenario
Direct Landfall Hit
25% Chance
The storm moves closer to major production corridors and forces a deeper offshore shutdown, with some refinery curtailments along the Louisiana or Texas coast. The disruption remains a sector event rather than a broad macro shock, but oil markets react more sharply.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.