Talks Stall Quickly

The most likely path is that the Abu Dhabi format opens but fails to bridge the core gap: Moscow’s demand for all of Donetsk and Luhansk versus Kyiv’s refusal to concede territory. The U.S. and allies keep the channel open, but the near-term result is diplomatic process rather than settlement.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.