Talks Without Breakthrough

32%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A leader-level meeting takes place, but Putin maintains his demand for all of Donbas while Zelenskyy refuses formal territorial concessions. This is a plausible baseline because both sides gain diplomatically from appearing engaged, yet their stated positions remain far apart.

What it moves

Energy+0.2%
Consumer Cyclicals−0.2%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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