Ceasefire Framework Emerges

The most market-relevant upside case is that Trump brokers a leader-level meeting that produces a framework based on freezing current front lines, even if sovereignty issues remain unresolved. Putin’s demand for all of Donbas remains a major obstacle, but both sides may accept a staged process to secure political and military breathing room.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.