If this story plays out

−0.4%Impact on the S&P 500 across 2 scenarios (−0.6% to +0.3%)

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

They ask related questions, not these. Each chance is the market's price on the side shown.

• When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal

  68%

  Kalshi · Before Jul 1, 2027: No · on “Persistent global diesel and middle-distillate tightness”

• When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal

  83%

  Kalshi · Before Apr 1, 2027: No · on “Persistent global diesel and middle-distillate tightness”

• Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal

  89%

  Polymarket · No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 · on “Persistent global diesel and middle-distillate tightness”

• When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal

  8%

  Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2027 · on “Global diesel and middle-distillate market normalization”

• When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal

  18%

  Kalshi · Before Apr 1, 2027 · on “Global diesel and middle-distillate market normalization”

• Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal

  12%

  Polymarket · No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026: No · on “Global diesel and middle-distillate market normalization”