Democratic challenger Troy Jackson took an early 55.6% to 44.0% lead over Republican Sen. Susan Collins with an estimated 2% of the vote counted in Maine’s Senate race, tallying 7,541 votes to 5,976 for the five term incumbent in Decision Desk HQ’s initial tally. A final outcome may take time to determine because the contest is subject to ranked choice voting and six other candidates qualified to formally run as write-ins.
Exit polling showed voters divided over Collins’s record and political alignment. In NBC News exit polls, 58% of Maine voters said Collins is too supportive of President Donald Trump while 42% said she is not, though 57% said she would do a better job securing federal funding for the state compared with 29% for Jackson and 14% who said neither. A CNN statewide exit poll put Jackson ahead 51% to 46%, while a Drop Site News exit poll of 165 voters in Augusta showed Collins at 50.3% to Jackson’s 49.7%.
As polls prepared to close at 8 p.m. ET, Collins’s implied win probability on Kalshi and Polymarket climbed 5 percentage points on Election Day to 32%, while Jackson’s projected margin of victory on Kalshi narrowed to 2.1% from 3.4% the day before.
