Collins late comeback
−0.1%
Although unlikely given the size of the early lead and pre-election polling, late-reporting precincts could be substantially more favorable to Collins. This would produce an upset relative to both polling and the initial count.
What it moves
- Finance+0.4%
- Energy+0.4%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.