Possible scenario
Mediated Pause Returns
24% Chance
Oman, Russia and China use the UK deployment as leverage to push both sides back toward de-escalation. Riyadh accepts indirect talks while Houthis claim they forced a defensive Western response and pause large missile barrages.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.