Possible scenario
Limited Deterrence Holds
38% Chance
The UK deployment gives Saudi air defenses extra capacity and signals Western backing without expanding into offensive operations. Houthis test the new posture with drones or missiles, but most are intercepted and Riyadh avoids major disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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