Possible scenario
Saudi Response Escalates
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia uses the RAF defensive deployment to free domestic aircraft for retaliation against Houthi launch infrastructure. The UK insists its role is defensive, but the operational line between shielding and enabling Saudi strikes becomes politically contested.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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