Voters will decide on the first-in-the-nation 5% wealth tax on Nov. 3, though recent polling indicates it no longer holds majority support. Prediction markets at Kalshi have lowered the probability of the measure passing to 24%. Google co-founder Sergey Brin has spent $138 million to oppose the levy, a political effort Politico says has transformed him into a significant political force in the state. Governor Gavin Newsom also opposes the tax.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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NBER Study Projects $39B Net Loss From California Billionaire Tax
US Politics13 hours ago
A mass exodus of the state's ultrawealthy taxpayers would likely erase the financial benefits of the proposed tax on billionaires. Economists Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh of the National Bureau of Economic Research estimate that while Proposition 40 would raise about $30 billion in a one-time collection, the migration of wealth to other states would result in $70 billion of lost income tax revenue. This would lead to a mean net present value of negative $39 billion for California's budget.
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