Possible scenario
Repeal Measure Advances
48% Chance
The NBER estimate gives Governor Gavin Newsom and business-aligned opponents a concrete fiscal argument for canceling the billionaire tax. Legislative Democrats and major donors increasingly frame the repeal measure as a way to avoid capital flight and protect California's tax base.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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