Possible scenario
Tax Survives Challenge
18% Chance
Despite the NBER estimate and Newsom's opposition, the tax survives because labor groups and progressive coalitions succeed in framing it as an anti-inequality measure. The state then faces immediate administrative, constitutional, and taxpayer-residency disputes.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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