Orderly Selloff Continues

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The PBOC facility slows forced deleveraging but does not reverse investor skepticism toward AI valuations after the prior crash. The next stage is an orderly derating rather than a liquidity seizure, with weakness concentrated in technology and brokerage-linked financials.

What it moves

Technology−1.5%
Finance−0.8%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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