Poll Overstates Shift

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The 64% Republican number proves too high because of sampling, turnout assumptions, or geographic concentration. Later polls still show Democratic erosion, but not a wholesale partisan realignment among Jewish voters.

What it moves

Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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