GOP Realignment Holds

40%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Republicans convert the poll into a broader narrative that Jewish voters are moving right over Israel, antisemitism, and Democratic divisions. The shift is most consequential in high-density Jewish districts and suburbs in New York, New Jersey, Florida, Pennsylvania, and California.

What it moves

Industrials+0.3%
Energy+0.2%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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