Tech Decoupling Escalates

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The equity rout becomes more closely tied to US-China technology restrictions after Washington advances limits on AI-related investment. Chinese semiconductor, cloud and internet platforms underperform, while global investors price a higher risk premium for technology supply chains.

What it moves

Technology−2.2%
Industrials−0.5%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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