Possible scenario
Security Lockdown Works
42% Chance
French authorities flood Marseille with CRS riot police, gendarmes, and judicial investigators, prioritizing protection of Jewish sites and commercial streets. The most likely near-term path is containment rather than a nationwide breakdown, because the violence is concentrated and the state has strong policing capacity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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