Possible scenario
Riots Spread Nationally
27% Chance
The Marseille attacks become a template for copycat unrest in other French cities, especially around protests linked to Gaza, policing, and communal tensions. This is less likely than local containment but plausible given the preceding school riots, flamethrower attack, and storming of Marseille City Hall.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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