Possible scenario
Political Backlash Deepens
21% Chance
The events become a national political crisis over antisemitism, immigration, policing, and the Israel-Gaza war’s spillover into France. Parliamentary conflict and street mobilization intensify, but institutions remain functional.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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