Possible scenario
Huawei Migration Works
40% Chance
DeepSeek successfully shifts a large share of frontier pretraining to Huawei Ascend clusters, helped by its newly open-sourced training toolset and Huawei's supernode architecture. Nvidia remains important for inference and legacy workloads, but the strategic direction of Chinese AI compute moves visibly toward domestic hardware.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
Tickers
- NVDA-3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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