Possible scenario
US Controls Escalate
20% Chance
Washington treats DeepSeek's large Ascend order as evidence that prior export controls are being worked around. The response focuses on chipmaking inputs, cloud access, model training services, or additional Entity List designations tied to Huawei's AI ecosystem.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.9%
Tickers
- -2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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