Possible scenario
Technical Bottlenecks Emerge
25% Chance
Huawei's hardware availability improves, but scaling efficiency, compiler maturity, networking reliability, or HBM constraints slow full migration. DeepSeek still wants domestic chips, yet near-term frontier model work remains partly dependent on Nvidia-compatible infrastructure.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA+1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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