Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Broadens
18% Chance
Moscow responds to repeated energy-infrastructure losses with a larger strike campaign against Ukraine’s grid, ports, and defense-industrial sites. The market impact comes less from the Rostov terminal itself and more from the risk of escalation around the Black Sea and European energy routes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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