Possible scenario
Contained Logistics Disruption
45% Chance
Russia contains the damage to the Rostov oil terminal through emergency repairs, rerouting, and drawdowns from other regional storage. The strike remains important for Russian logistics but does not remove enough crude or product supply to materially alter global balances.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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