Possible scenario
Campaign Intensifies
25% Chance
Ukraine follows the Rostov tank-farm strike with additional attacks on refineries, pump stations, and export depots. The pattern suggests a systematic campaign to degrade Russia’s oil revenue and domestic fuel availability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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