Market sentiment has shifted toward a hawkish Federal Reserve, with prediction markets estimating a 70% chance of another rate hike in October. Pressure on the bond market is compounding as oil prices rise above $90 per barrel and business input costs hit their steepest increase since 2022. The 2 year yield also reached 4.90% for the first time since May 2024, reflecting expectations of the first consecutive interest rate hikes since May 2023.
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
Story
US 10 Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.1% for First Time Since 2007
US Markets27 days ago
The US 30 year Treasury yield rose above 5.37%, the highest settlement since June 2004, while 30 year mortgage rates climbed to 7.12%. This shift followed S&P Global business activity data for September, where the composite PMI hit a 5 year high of 58.4, exceeding the 55.3 estimate. Manufacturing PMI rose to 57.0 and services climbed to 58.7, fueling a spike in borrowing costs that drove the 10 year note above 5.1%, its highest level since 2007. Mortgage applications for the week ended Sept. 18 fell 1.5%.
Looking for more context or analysis?
Tilt chat provides reliable, tailored insights, alerts, and automations.