Possible scenario
Bond Selloff Extends
25% Chance
A less benign but plausible outcome is that the 5.1% print accelerates momentum selling in Treasuries. Concerns over Fed persistence, inflation risk and Treasury supply push term premiums higher and tighten financial conditions quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.