The surge in Treasury volatility reflects a rapid repricing of Fed tightening after a period of relative stability in the credit markets. Bond yields are currently reacting to shifting macroeconomic indicators and inflationary pressures, jolting traders out of a low-volatility environment that had persisted for over a year.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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MOVE Index Jumps Nearly 30% in Largest Weekly Volatility Spike in Over a Year
US Markets26 days ago
Investors now estimate a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in October, up from nearly zero at the start of the month. This pivot follows a surge in oil prices and hotter economic data, which pushed long-term Treasury yields to multi-decade highs. As a result, the MOVE Index has climbed nearly 30%, marking the bond market's largest weekly volatility increase in more than 12 months.
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