Possible scenario
Relief Rally Emerges
20% Chance
A weaker data print or calming remarks from Federal Reserve officials could trigger a short-covering rally in Treasuries. Because positioning has turned defensive after the yield spike, even modest relief could lift growth stocks, housing-related shares and credit.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Fed policy rate Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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