Possible scenario
Limited Role Emerges
28% Chance
Pakistan's denial of direct strikes remains technically defensible, but evidence emerges of logistical, intelligence, or defensive air support for Saudi Arabia. This raises regional tensions without confirming Pakistani bombing missions inside Yemen.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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