Possible scenario
Denial Holds
42% Chance
Pakistan's denial is accepted by Saudi Arabia, Iran, and outside observers as broadly accurate. Islamabad continues to frame the Saudi defense pact as defensive, limiting its exposure to the Yemen conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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