Possible scenario
Diplomacy Contains Crisis
18% Chance
Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Omani mediators move quickly to prevent the dispute from broadening the Yemen conflict. The episode becomes a diplomatic test of the new Saudi-Pakistani defense pact rather than a military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.