Possible scenario
Escalation Hits Infrastructure
22% Chance
Russia intensifies the campaign from bridge interdiction to broader attacks on civilian mobility, power, and rail nodes around Kyiv. This becomes a more material geopolitical escalation, prompting stronger Western statements and a sharper short-term risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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