Possible scenario
Air Defenses Improve
24% Chance
Ukraine’s partners respond by accelerating air-defense deliveries and interceptor resupply. Russia keeps attacking, but a higher interception rate reduces the probability of severe infrastructure collapse in the capital.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
- +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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