Possible scenario
Bridge Campaign Persists
42% Chance
Russia continues using drones and missiles to disrupt Kyiv’s bridge network, focusing on the Northern Bridge and nearby river crossings. The campaign remains militarily coercive and psychologically significant, but does not immediately widen beyond Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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