Possible scenario
Separatism Fades Politically
25% Chance
The scale of the remain victory weakens the separatist mandate and shifts Alberta politics back toward autonomy demands inside Canada. Secession remains a rhetorical force, but investors discount a near-term break-up risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Tickers
- ENB+0.4%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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