Possible scenario
Energy Compromise Stalls
19% Chance
Despite the remain vote, practical disagreements over emissions caps, Indigenous consent, route selection, and federal environmental review could block a fast energy deal. This would not revive immediate secession risk, but it would disappoint investors expecting a unity dividend.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Finance -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.