Possible scenario
Unity Bargain Advances
44% Chance
The decisive 76.5% remain vote gives Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith political room to negotiate a unity package. The most likely path is a practical bargain involving pipeline permitting, emissions rules, and limited fiscal concessions rather than constitutional change.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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