• 

  45%

  +0.1%

  Relocation Contains Threat

  The most likely outcome is a force-protection adjustment rather than an immediate military escalation. US European Command keeps aerial-refueling missions running from Spain while UK and US security services continue hardening RAF Mildenhall and related facilities.

  Consumer Services +0.1%

• 

  25%

  −0.1%

  Security Services Intervene

  A credible next step is a law-enforcement and intelligence response, especially if the plots are specific enough to drive aircraft relocations. UK authorities, US military investigators, and European partners could disrupt surveillance or logistics networks tied to Iranian operatives.

  Industrials +0.5% · Consumer Services −0.1%

• 

  18%

  −0.1%

  Diplomatic Escalation Follows

  If intelligence points to state-directed activity, the US and UK may respond through sanctions, expulsions, and public attribution rather than military action. This would keep the issue in the geopolitical-risk channel while stopping short of direct conflict.

  Industrials +0.5% · Energy +0.4% · Consumer Services −0.1%

• 

  12%

  −1.5%

  Attack Attempt Occurs

  A lower-probability but higher-impact path is an attempted attack against US personnel, aircraft, or support infrastructure in Britain or elsewhere in Europe. Even a failed attempt would sharply raise the risk of US-Iran retaliation cycles.

  Energy +3.5% · Industrials +3.1% · Consumer Services −2.8%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.