Attack Attempt Occurs
−1.5%
A lower-probability but higher-impact path is an attempted attack against US personnel, aircraft, or support infrastructure in Britain or elsewhere in Europe. Even a failed attempt would sharply raise the risk of US-Iran retaliation cycles.
What it moves
- Energy+3.5%
- Industrials+3.1%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.