Possible scenario
Deleveraging Accelerates
15%
−3.1%
A less likely but plausible path is that losses force a faster reduction in leverage, particularly in crowded technology and momentum positions. This would resemble a positioning shock rather than a pandemic-style crisis, but the next one to two sessions would see sharper volatility and wider credit spreads.
What it moves
- Technology−4.0%
- Finance−2.9%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- 10-year Treasury yield
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.