Possible scenario
Split Florida Result
18% Chance
Ashley Moody holds Marco Rubio's former Senate seat, but Democrat David Jolly wins the governor race by building a broader coalition of independents, moderates, and anti-Trump Republicans. This outcome would show that Florida remains Republican-leaning federally while still open to statewide Democratic wins under favorable conditions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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