Possible scenario
Republicans Hold Both
62% Chance
Ashley Moody wins the special Senate election and Byron Donalds wins the governor race, confirming Florida's shift from swing state to Republican stronghold. The current 10-point Senate lead and 7-point governor lead prove durable because Democratic gains in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Orange counties are not enough to offset Republican margins elsewhere.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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