Possible scenario
Democratic Late Surge
12% Chance
The Republican polling advantage erodes as Democrats consolidate undecided voters, improve turnout among younger voters, and narrow the gap with Hispanic independents. The races remain uphill for Democrats, but Senate control implications make the late movement more nationally relevant.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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