Gridlock Holds

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely outcome is divided government with Democrats controlling the Senate agenda but unable to move major bills past a Republican filibuster, the House, or President Trump’s veto pen. John Thune keeps Senate Republicans aligned with Trump, while Chuck Schumer prioritizes messaging votes and oversight.

What it moves

Finance+0.3%
Healthcare+0.3%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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