Possible scenario
Rhetoric Outruns Policy
28% Chance
Middle powers endorse the idea of resisting coercion but avoid binding commitments because their China exposures differ sharply. This path is plausible because Europe, India, ASEAN states, and commodity exporters have different tolerances for retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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