Possible scenario
Coordinated Deterrence Compact
38% Chance
Sunak’s argument gains traction because it fits the post-2024 pattern of Chinese raw-material leverage and growing middle-power coordination. The most likely constructive outcome is a practical deterrence framework among the UK, EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, South Korea, and selected partners rather than full decoupling from China.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.8%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.