Possible scenario
Chinese Retaliation Test
22% Chance
China may probe whether the emerging coalition is credible by applying narrow pressure to a vulnerable member or sensitive supply chain. This is less likely than gradual coordination but fits the timeline of prior Lithuania restrictions and raw-material export limits.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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